Sample Models

Market share forecasts

Market share models are used to estimate or predict the market share of competing companies or products, or audience market share for radio stations in a specific locality, or attendance for teams in a given sport, or students in universities. They are single networks that use “soft” human judgments to estimate or forecast market share. It is a validation of both the model and the ANP process if we obtain results that can be checked objectively against outside data.

Market share models that correctly predict outcomes have another use. Not only do they give the market share of the products or companies, they also give the priorities of the factors. The importance of the factors that consumers think about when they are choosing a product is something that companies want to know so they can try to make sure they look good on the high priority ones

The following files are very useful when working with market share models

Compatibility Index Template

The compatibility index can be used to measure how close any two priority vectors are to each other. If they are exactly the same, it is 1.0. The farther from 1 the less close the vectors. This applies to local priority vectors resulting from making comparisons to the final priority results. It is often used in computing how close the market share estimation final synthesis results (the Normals column) is to the actual computation of relative market share. To obtain the relative market share, sum the entries and divide each entry by the sum. The attached Excel file has templates for computing the compatibility index for 2 to 8 elements.

Comparing ANP Market Share Results to Actual Values
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